Research Note: Mortgage borrowers and macroeconomic developments

This research uses mortgage product sales data to understand the impact of potential future macroeconomic changes on mortgage affordability.

Read the Research Note (PDF)


In this research note, we explore the impact on mortgage affordability of potential future changes in interest rates and real income, integrating external macroeconomic forecasts and highly granular transaction data on UK mortgages.

This analysis helped inform the FCA’s guidance to firms. This sets out the flexibility firms have to support borrowers who are either in payment shortfall or are worried they may not be able to make future payments. 

We will continue to monitor the situation as it develops and review data closely to understand how payment pressures feed into payment shortfall and arrears.


Guidogiorgio Bodrato, Karen Croxson, Kieran Keohane, Eric Morrison, Eoghan O’Brien


Research notes contribute to our work by providing rigorous research results and stimulating debate. While they may not necessarily represent the position of the FCA, they are one source of evidence we may use to discharge our functions and inform our views. We strive to ensure research outputs are accurate, through checks including independent referee reports, but the nature of such research and choice of research methods is a matter for the authors using their expert judgement. To the extent that research notes contain any errors or omissions, they should be attributed to the individual authors, rather than the FCA.